Weather on the menu
METEOROLOGIST and Channel 7 weather presenter Jane Bunn gave local farmers some hope the El Niño currently affecting the country is declining.
Speaking at a Rural Bank luncheon held at Djinta Djinta Winery at Kardella South last Wednesday, Ms Bunn said the current El Niño was one of the strongest in 40 years, but may have reached its peak and start to decline over the next six months.
“By the middle of next year, we should be back in neutral territory or even heading towards La Niña,” she said.
“It will be a very different year to this one. It will start off drier, but then as it goes on, more and more moisture will be available.”
Ms Bunn also explained to attendees how rain develops in Victoria.
“Cold fronts bring the majority of rain to southern Victoria and South Gippsland is in one of the best locations in the state to get wet weather out of a cold front,” she said.
Ms Bunn said this September was the third driest on record and a lot of places around the country, including South Gippsland, missed out on rain.
“However in terms of moisture the signs for the future are good,” she said.
“Warmth in the Tasman Sea will mean whenever a low comes across, there will be moisture available to turn it into rain.”
Hallston dairy farmer Frank Dekker attended the event and said it was informative.
“I have just seen in the last couple of years how severe weather can be and I wondered if it was to do with the El Niño,” he said.
“Jane explained it has a bit to do with El Niño but also other factors in the Indian and Pacific oceans.”
Mr Dekker said he always used to look at the forecast for Perth to determine whether or not to do silage or hay.
“Jane explained our weather often comes from inland as well,” he said.
“I am very happy to hear the El Niño is on its way out. It has been a very dry, unusual six months. I have heard we may get some reasonably good rains in late summer, which will be great for all farmers in the district.”
Mr Dekker said despite the less than favourable season, he should have enough hay and silage to last his farm through the summer.
“I did lock up a bit of extra hay and I locked it up early. This year, my silage is down around 20 per cent and my hay will be about 30 per cent,” he said.
Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Jonathan Pollock said El Niño typically impacts rainfall over eastern Australia during winter and spring.
“The relationship between El Niño and rainfall over summer is not as strong,” he said.
“For South Gippsland, the average summer rainfall total during an El Niño year is about the same as the long-term average summer rainfall for all years.”
Mr Pollock said the rainfall outlook for South Gippsland over summer doesn’t show a strong shift in the odds to either a wetter than average, or drier than average season.
“That is, the odds are close to 50-50 for a wetter than normal summer,” he said.
Informative session: Athlone dairy farmers Jenny and Daryl Smethurst and Pakenham beef producer Matthew Stewart enjoyed the Rural Bank event held at Djinta Djinta Winery in Kardella South.
Banking news: Rural Bank chief financial officer Will Rayner and Channel 7 weather presenter Jane Bunn were at Kardella South last Wednesday, to talk all thinks financial and rain.
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Posted by brad on Dec 15 2015. Filed under Rural News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry
